Debate: Ukraine Drones Hitting Moscow?

Russia, Ukraine Fighting Full-scale Drone War

By Mohammad Ali Salih — Washington

Ukrainian soldiers watch drone feeds from an underground command center in Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Sunday, Dec. 25, 2022. Credit: AP

Last week, the Ukrainians sent drones that hit Engels military airfield deep inside Russia, the second such attack in a month. News reports said that the Ukrainians were planning to send a few drones to hit Moscow in what is expected to be a “symbolic victory” over Russia.

From Ukraine-Russia borders, Moscow is about 400 miles away, as far as Engels military airfield. There are two other military airfields within the same distance: Dyagilevo and Kursk.

Engels, which was hit, is the home to Tu-95 and Tu-160 nuclear-capable strategic bombers.

To sum it up, Russia and Ukraine are fighting the first full-scale drone war.

Whether or not the Americans are encouraging the Ukrainians, whether or not the drones hit Moscow, a whole new kind of war is already being fought.

These are quotations from three American commentators about drones, the counter-drones and the long-distance drones.

First, George Will, veteran columnist with the Washington Post, called for more sophisticated drones, not the ones that the U.S. used in its war on terrorism.

Second, James Stavridis, retired U.S. Navy admiral and former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, said the Ukrainian drones put the Russians on the defensive.

Mark Bowden, the author of “Black Hawk Down,” “Huế 1968,” and “The Finish: The Killing of Osama Bin Laden,” is concerned about anti-drone weapons, now that third world countries such as Iran can send drones to near and far.

George Will: “Sophisticated Drones”

“‘In war, moral power is as physical as three parts out of four.’ — Napoleon Bonaparte

On the afternoon of June 18, 1815, near the Belgian village of Waterloo, the Duke of Wellington said: ‘Hard pounding, this, gentlemen: let’s see who will pound the longest.’

If Ukraine is given material aid equivalent to one-fourth of that nation’s moral resources, Ukraine can prevail against the Russian invaders, which means, at a minimum, restoration of the status quo ante to last February …

“So, the immediate imperative is to supply Ukraine with the most sophisticated and dangerous U.S. unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), a.k.a. drones, which can be force-multipliers for Ukraine’s hard pounding of the Russians.

“So far, the most consequential weapon transferred to Ukraine has been the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), whose munitions have the long reach and accuracy necessary to immediately imperil Russian artillery pieces …

“UAVs can locate Russian artillery when they unleash their often-indiscriminate attacks on urban population centers before the artillery can be moved to avoid a counterstrike.

Advanced U.S. drones combine intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, targeting and strike capabilities. Such drones can be sent into, and transform, a battle immediately, saving civilian lives by making Russia’s terror tactics terrifying for those who are firing the artillery or launching low-level airstrikes …”

Admiral James Stavridis: “Punishing Putin”

“Western backers will try to restrain the Ukrainians from launching larger-scale

attacks, hoping to reduce the risk of the conflict spiraling further and drawing in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization directly. NATO will try to mollify the Ukrainians by offering more and better surface-to-air missiles to defend their cities, and may seriously consider supplying combat aircraft.

“If the Ukrainians are given tools to truly ‘close the skies’ over their nation, they might be more amenable to refraining from long-range attacks. But as things stand, Ukraine has every right to respond against targets inside Russia. Doing so with unmanned vehicles is a prudent path. “Unless the West is willing to protect Ukrainians from a terror campaign from the sky, we should get out of their way.

“On the other side, these attacks will likely harden the Russian military’s resolve and provide Putin with the talking points he wants for the Russian population: Ukraine is attacking us!

But more than nine months into his brutal war, his approval rating at home is suffering and his international support dwindling. Sanctions are biting the economy, and price caps on Russian oil went into effect on Monday. Europe is holding together well in the face of Russian energy blackmail.

“Much like the famous air raid on Tokyo by US Colonel Jimmy Dolittle in the early days of World War II, the drone attacks show a weakness in a supposedly invulnerable home front. It may help ordinary Russians to see the mounting costs of what might best be termed ‘the war of Putin’s ego.’”

Mark Bowden: “Anti-Drones”

“Last year Congress directed the Pentagon to develop a counterforce for small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), and budgeted almost $750 million for them. The newly created office’s director has said that the reliance on drones in Ukraine added urgency to his mission. It really shows the importance of having counter-UAS at scale …

“For its part, the U.S. Army is experimenting with using large airbursts or electromagnetic pulses to guard against the eventual emergence of the drone swarm.

“The U.S. Navy’s High Energy Laser weapons system, and those under development by major defense contractors — Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and others — use AI to very rapidly target and destroy incoming drones one by one, potentially enough to disable a swarm.

“Such a weapon would be more useful at sea or over an open battlefield than over cities, where most combat in the modern era takes place.

“Air traffic over large cities is busy, so pinpointing a relatively small and dangerous intruder without knocking down friendly aircraft is hard. To help this effort, the Army’s Joint Counter Small Unmanned Aerial System Office is looking at ways to adapt existing air-traffic-control networks to spot anomalous flight patterns …